How Uncertainty Impacts Customer Satisfaction

In a recently updated paper, Camila Back (LMU Munich), Martin Spann (LMU Munich), and I investigate how uncertainty in expectations affects how satisfied or dissatisfied consumers feel about products and services. We developed a theoretical model showing that vague expectations increase consumers’ personal reference points — the level of performance needed to make them satisfied. So, with uncertain expectations, consumers require better quality or faster service to feel happy.

Additionally, uncertainty mutes emotional reactions, both positive and negative. Good performance feels less exciting, while bad performance stings less, too. It is harder to delight uncertain customers but also easier to appease them after letdowns.

The paper demonstrates this through an experiment about online delivery times. When ranges are wider (e.g., 2-12 days), customers need faster deliveries to be satisfied. Receiving items late is less upsetting with uncertain timeframes, but early deliveries also feel less gratifying. Analyzing customer ratings for a Brazilian online retailer reinforces these patterns. As expectations varied more, customers gave lower ratings on average yet seemed more forgiving of late deliveries.

What does this mean for companies and managers? Firstly, lock in certainty if you want to thrill customers who receive excellent service. Secondly, quote wide ranges if unable to prevent the occasional slip-up - uncertain customers will be more resilient. We have created an app to model these dynamics and assist managers with optimizing uncertainty communication in the context of delivery times. Try it out below (or on separate page):